Nils Gottfries

professor emeritus at Department of Economics, Senior Faculty

+4618-471 2304
Visiting address:
Kyrkogårdsgatan 10

Postal address:
Box 513
751 20 UPPSALA

Short presentation

My main interest is macroeconomics, especially the micro-foundations of the supply side. Topics include wage contracts and unemployment, the importance of customer relations in goods' markets, exchange rates and prices in an open economy, studies of firm dynamics using micro data.

I teach macroeconomics on intermediate, master, and Ph D levels.

My textbook MACROECONOMICS (intermediate level) was published by Palgrave-Macmillan in 2013.

Short lectures on YOUTUBE (50 000+ views) available here.

Keywords: macroeconomics labor economics

Ph D Stockholm University 1985. Researcher, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm, 1985-1994. Professor, Uppsala University 1994-. Member of the Swedish Commission on EMU 1995-1996. Editor of Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2006-2009. Member of the Scientific Board of the Swedish Government Debt Office 2013-. See CV for more information.


DEEP DYNAMICS (with Glenn Mickelsson and Karolina Stadin)

Combining micro and macro data, we construct demand-side shocks, which we take to be exogenous for individual firms. We estimate a reduced-form model to describe how firms adjust their production, employment, capital stock, and inventories in response to such shocks . Then, we chose the structural parameters of a theoretical model so that the theoretical model can match the impulse-response functions from the estimated reduced-form model. Firms’ reactions to demand-side shocks are well explained by a model where firms have modest market power, face convex adjustment costs and where they can vary utilization flexibly. The stock-out motive helps to explain inventory dynamics.

The Beveridge Curve and Labour Market Flows - A Reinterpretation (with Karolina Stadin)

According to search-matching theory, the Beveridge curve slopes downward because vacancies are filled more quickly when unemployment is high. Using monthly panel data for local labour markets in Sweden we find a Beveridge curve but no/weak evidence that high unemployment makes it easier to fill vacancies. Instead, there are few vacancies when unemployment is high because there is a low inflow of new vacancies. We show that a simple model with on-the-job search is broadly consistent with the cyclical behaviour of stocks and flows in the labour market. In periods of high unemployment, fewer employed workers find new jobs and this leads to a smaller inflow of new vacancies.

Product Market Imperfections and Employment Dynamics (with Mikael Carlsson and Stefan Eriksson)

How important is imperfect competition in the product market for employment dynamics? To investigate this, we formulate a model of employment adjustment with search frictions, vacancy costs, hiring costs, and imperfect competition in the product market. From this model, we derive a structural equation for employment that we estimate on firm-level data. We find that product market demand shocks have significant and quantitatively large effects on employment. This supports a model with imperfect competition in the product market. We find no evidence that the level of unemployment in the local labour market has a direct effect on job creation in existing firms. In some specifications, we find evidence of congestion effects, i.e., that hiring is slowed down if there are many vacancies in the local labour market.

See publication list for earlier research.

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Nils Gottfries